Commonwealth Demo Jan/Feb 2011 demo : Page 1

ﬁrstword PUBLISHED BY THE VIRGINIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® The Business Advocate for Virginia Real Estate Professionals John Dickinson, CCIM, GRI President Trish Szego, CRB, CRS President-Elect Mary Victoria Dykstra, ABR, CRS Vice President John Daly, SFR Treasurer Cindy Stackhouse, GRI Immediate Past President R. Scott Brunner, CAE Chief Executive Ofﬁcer scott@VARealtor.com Amanda Rainsford Director of Sales & Marketing amanda@VARealtor.com Andrew Kantor Editor & Information Manager andrew@VARealtor.com For advertising information, Brittany Sullivan at (410) 584-1968 or e-mail var@networkmediapartners.com The mission of The Virginia Association of REALTORS ® is to enhance its membership’s ability to achieve business success. Commonwealth magazine (ISSN#10888721) is published bi-monthly by the Virginia Association of REALTORS ® , 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059-4578; (804) 264-5033. Virginia Association of REALTORS ® members pay annual dues with a one-year subscription included within their dues. Periodicals postage paid at the Glen Allen, VA post ofﬁce and additional mailing ofﬁces. USPS Per. # 9604. Postmaster: Send address changes to: Commonwealth magazine, 10231 Telegraph Rd., Glen Allen, VA 23059-4578. Custom Publishing Services provided by Network Media Partners, Inc. Executive Plaza 1, Suite 900, 11350 McCormick Road Hunt Valley, MD 21031 ANDREW KANTOR Two sides of the statistical coin T HERE ’ S A LITTLE -KNOWN law that requires anyone writing about statistics to at some point quote Charles Dilke about “lies, damn lies, and statistics.” So there, I’ve done it. The point, of course, is that it’s easy to manipulate numbers to make your point — whatever that point is. That’s why economists can justify opposing points of view; they can prove that such-and-such a policy is the best way to help the economy. And so can their opposition. (Economists can prove , for example, that Reagan’s 1981 tax cuts boosted the econ-omy. They can also prove that it was the increase in government spending. Pick your poison.) If you’re a cynic — and you should be — you’ll take any claims of numeric proof with a grain of salt, at least until there’s a broad consensus. With economics, that will rarely happen. But there’s another perspective. If you look at the right statistics, you might discover some unex-pected correlations. Maybe there’s a connection between rainfall and home sales, or between the num-ber of ﬂowers sold and the median home price. Of course, don’t assume that correlation means causation. Violence at the local high school may have dropped because of school uniforms — or maybe it was the new principal. Or because the last of the McBully kids ﬁnally graduated. Even if there isn’t a direct correlation — if A didn’t cause B — there may still be some con-nection, like a common cause. It’s worth investigating, or at least thinking about. All this chatter is by way of introduction to our ﬁrst full-ﬂedged numbers issue. Real estate is full of data — sale price, units sold, days on market, square footage …. Often those data are important, and sometimes they’re just interesting. This is the time of year we compile the previous year’s information (thanks to your local Realtor ® association); it seemed a good spot for an annual piece on numbers. So peruse the charts on pages 18 through 25, and hopefully get some useful information out of them. But remember that the num-bers you see tell the story — but they aren’t the story itself. L VARbuzz.com. Your virtual café for real estate news, views, and issues. Read the perspectives of your fellow Virginia REALTORS ® . Join the conversation at VARbuzz.com today. Get it? Got it? Good! In addition to the print version of Commonwealth , VAR publishes electronic newsletters at regular intervals, including... ...the online version of our print magazine, published twice each month. If you’re not receiving newsletters via e-mail from time to time, it may be that we don’t have your correct email address. Contact your local association of REALTORS ® to enter your address in the database. Also, check the spam ﬁlter on your computer and L ISSUE 1 VOLUME 18 authorize any email from VARealtor.com . Andrew Kantor, Editor andrew@VARealtor.com JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2011 1

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Two sides of the statistical coin THERE'S A LITTLE-KNOWN law that requires anyone writing about statistics to at some point quote Charles Dilke about "lies, damn lies, and statistics." So there, I've done it. The point, of course, is that it's easy to manipulate numbers to make your point – whatever that point is. That's why economists can justify opposing points of view; they can prove that suchand- such a policy is the best way to help the economy. And so can their opposition. (Economists can prove, for example, that Reagan's 1981 tax cuts boosted the economy. They can also prove that it was the increase in government spending. Pick your poison.) If you're a cynic – and you should be – you'll take any claims of numeric proof with a grain of salt, at least until there's a broad consensus. With economics, that will rarely happen. But there's another perspective. If you look at the right statistics, you might discover some unexpected correlations. Maybe there's a connection between rainfall and home sales, or between the number of flowers sold and the median home price. Of course, don't assume that correlation means causation. Violence at the local high school may have dropped because of school uniforms – or maybe it was the new principal. Or because the last of the McBully kids finally graduated. Even if there isn't a direct correlation – if A didn't cause B – there may still be some connection, like a common cause. It's worth investigating, or at least thinking about. All this chatter is by way of introduction to our first fullfledged numbers issue. Real estate is full of data – sale price, units sold, days on market, square footage …. Often those data are important, and sometimes they're just interesting. This is the time of year we compile the previous year's information (thanks to your local Realtor® association); it seemed a good spot for an annual piece on numbers. So peruse the charts on pages 18 through 25, and hopefully get some useful information out of them. But remember that the numbers you see tell the story – but they aren't the story itself.

Virginia Association of Realtors

URL: http://www.varealtor.com
Email: scott@varealtor.com

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